Inadimplência fecha outubro com alta anual de 3,95%, mas dados mensais devem desacelerar até o fim do ano


Recebimento do 13º e aumento da oferta  de empregos  temporários por conta do Natal devem estimular o consumidor a quitar pendências em atraso até dezembro

A quantidade de pessoas físicas com parcelamentos em atraso no banco de dados do Serviço de Proteção ao Crédito (SPC Brasil) no mês de outubro aumentou 3,95%, quando comparada a outubro do ano passado. Esta é a segunda menor variação apurada desde o início do ano, perdendo apenas para o mês de setembro de 2014, quando o número de pessoas inadimplentes subira 3,84% na base anual. O SPC estima que em outubro deste ano havia 55 milhões de CPFs negativados em serviços de proteção ao crédito de todo o país. Este número mostra um avanço em relação aos 54 milhões de consumidores verificados em setembro.

O avanço da inadimplência também foi sentido na comparação mensal: o número de CPFs negativados avançou 1,26% em outubro deste ano em relação a setembro. Na avaliação dos economistas do SPC Brasil, apesar dos incentivos dados pelos birôs de proteção ao crédito nos últimos meses por conta dos feirões de renegociação de dívidas e pela procura ativa por parte dos credores para cobrar as dívidas, o indicador reflete a dificuldade dos consumidores em quitar os compromissos financeiros.

“A dificuldade de sair da inadimplência está relacionada ao atual cenário de enfraquecimento da atividade econômica brasileira, agravado pela inflação elevada, que corrói o salário dos trabalhadores, e pelos juros altos, que aumentam o valor das dívidas”, explica a economista chefe do SPC Brasil, Marcela Kawauti.

Mudança no cenário até dezembro

Por outro lado, a expectativa dos economistas para os próximos meses – a exemplo do que ocorreu nos anos anteriores – é de moderação deste cenário de aceleração da inadimplência por conta de uma injeção de dinheiro na economia e de campanhas de renegociação de dívidas promovidas pelos birôs de proteção ao crédito em todo o país. “O recebimento das parcelas do décimo terceiro salário, o aumento da oferta de empregos temporários por conta do Natal e principalmente os feirões de renegociação de dívidas devem estimular o consumidor a quitar as pendências em atraso para começar 2015 no azul”, afirma Kawauti.

Dívidas em atraso

O número de dívidas em atraso no mês de outubro (um consumidor pode ter uma ou mais dívidas) cresceu 3,93%, quando comparado a outubro do ano passado. Já na comparação mensal ― outubro deste ano ante setembro ―, o cenário se manteve praticamente estável: a quantidade de pendências sofreu um tímido aumento de 0,06%.

A abertura do indicador por tempo de atraso da dívida na base mensal mostra um aumento expressivo de pendências novas, aquelas com até 90 dias de atraso (+13,55%). “A alta chama atenção por dois motivos: é a maior mostrada pela divisão nos últimos 32 meses, além de vir imediatamente após uma retração de 12,73% do número de dívidas visto em setembro. Essa retração de dívidas mais novas [até 90 dias] no mês de setembro é consequência das campanhas de renegociação de dívidas. Daí no mês de outubro, essas dívidas recentes retornaram à base do SPC”, explica Kawauti.

Número médio de dívidas

Com o forte aumento no número de devedores inadimplentes (+1,26%) e, no sentido oposto, a estabilidade no aumento do número de dívidas (+0,06%), a quantidade média de pendências por pessoa recuou entre setembro e outubro: de 2,113 para 2,088. “Por conta disso, o número médio de dívidas em outubro foi o menor desde maio deste ano, quando a média fora de 2,007”, afirma a economista.

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