Crédito deve crescer 9% este ano, a menor expansão desde 2003

Projeção anterior do BC, divulgada em março, era 11%. No ano passado, o crédito cresceu 11,3%. Essa será a menor taxa de crescimento do crédito desde 2003, quando ficou em 8,8%.

Com taxas de juros mais altas, o saldo das operações de crédito deve crescer menos este ano. Segundo estimativa do Banco Central (BC), a expansão do crédito deve ficar em 9%, em 2015. A projeção anterior do BC, divulgada em março, era 11%. No ano passado, o crédito cresceu 11,3%. Essa será a menor taxa de crescimento do crédito desde 2003, quando ficou em 8,8%.

A projeção para o crescimento do crédito livre, em que os bancos têm autonomia para aplicar o dinheiro captado no mercado e definir as taxas de juros, passou de 6% para 5%. A estimativa para a expansão do crédito direcionado (empréstimos com regras definidas pelo governo, destinados, basicamente, aos setores habitacional, rural e de infraestrutura) foi alterada de 16% para 14%.

O crédito dos bancos públicos deve apresentar expansão de 13%, ante estimativa anterior de 14%. Já as instituições privadas nacionais deve ter crescimento de 4%, bem menor do que 7% previstos em março. Os bancos privados estrangeiros terão expansão de 7% no crédito, a mesma estimativa anterior do BC.

O saldo das operações de credito em relação ao Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), soma de todos os bens e serviços produzidos no país, deve ficar em 56%, este ano. No ano passado, essa relação ficou em 54,7%.

Segundo o chefe do Departamento Econômico do BC, Tulio Maciel, a moderação do crédito e o aumento das taxas de juros seguem o atual quadro econômico, com aumento da taxa básica de juros, a Selic, corte de gastos públicos e retração da economia. “De uma maneira geral, o comportamento do mercado de crédito segue o ajuste macroeconômico em curso”, disse.

Para Maciel, esse cenário traz reflexos tanto para bancos, que oferecem menos crédito, quanto para os clientes, que reduzem a procura por empréstimos.

Maciel lembrou que as taxas de juros do crédito sobem em linha com o aumento a Selic, atualmente em 13,75% ao ano. A Selic já passou por seis altas seguidas. Em dezembro de 2014, a taxa de juros para pessoas físicas estava em 49,6% ao ano e, em maio, chegou ao recorde da série histórica iniciada em 2011 ao ficar em 57,3% ao ano.

A taxa de juros mais alta na pesquisa do BC é a do rotativo do cartão de crédito, que subiu 13,1 pontos percentuais, de abril para maio, para 360,6% ao ano. “O crédito rotativo por definição tem taxa de inadimplência mais elevada e isso acaba refletindo na taxa de juros”, disse Maciel. Ele acrescentou que os cidadãos devem ficar atentos à taxa de juros dessa modalidade e usar somente em casos excepcionais e por prazo muito curto de tempo.

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