Brasil tem R$230 bi em crédito inadimplente, diz gestora


O Brasil tem cerca de 230 bilhões de reais em empréstimos inadimplentes, o que deve garantir a expansão do mercado de recuperação de crédito por vários anos, segundo estimativa de uma gestora do setor.

“O estoque represado de crédito vencido daria trabalho para o mercado por vários anos”, disse à Reuters o presidente-executivo da Ipanema Credit Management, Godofredo Barros. A estimativa da gestora envolve um índice de operações vencidas de 5,5 por cento do Banco Central, do estoque de quase 3,2 trilhões de reais no final de fevereiro.

A Ipanema calcula que o mercado de crédito não bancário no Brasil, com instrumentos como debêntures e recebíveis e notas promissórias, por exemplo, some o equivalente a 30 por cento desse total. Somados, os compromissos vencidos em dívida bancária e não bancária levariam a cerca de 230 bilhões de reais.

“Considerando que não há perspectiva de recuperação breve da economia, esse número tende a aumentar rapidamente”, disse.

O número ilustra a deterioração da economia no mercado creditício do país, que após praticamente dobrar como proporção do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em 10 anos até 2015, para 54 por cento, tem registrado gradual elevação dos calotes. Além de refletir a forte ascensão do desemprego e dos pedidos de recuperação judicial e falências, o índice de inadimplência dos bancos atingiu o pico em quase uma década também na esteira dos efeitos da operação Lava Jato, que atingiu em cheio os setores de óleo e gás e de construção pesada.

Diante disso, o mercado conhecido também como “distressed assets” entrou rapidamente em ebulição no Brasil. Em agosto pasado, a Jive Investments captou um fundo de 500 milhões de reais para comprar créditos em atraso, principalmente de empresas.

Na sequência, a RCB Investimentos recebeu um aporte da americana PRA Group para o mesmo fim. A Canvas Capital também captou no mercado para comprar créditos corporativos inadimplentes. E na virada do ano, o Itaú Unibanco fechou a compra do controle da Recovery, a maior empresa de recuperação de crédito em atividade no setor no Brasil.

Segundo Barros, essa movimentação deve apressar o amadurecimento do mercado de recuperação de crédito no Brasil, a exemplo do que ocorre em mercados como Estados Unidos e Europa.

“Esse não é um mercado para aventureiros; se não tiver um bom banco de dados, plataforma e especialização, o futuro não é promissor”, disse Barros, prevendo que a tendência no país é de que o mercado fique concentrado num pequeno número de participantes.

Criada em 2010, a Ipanema tem entre os sócios ex-executivos do Banco Garantia, precursor do Credit Suisse no país. A gestora tem cerca de 10 bilhões de reais em carteiras de crédito em atraso, principalmente de financiamento a consumo. Após um primeiro fundo apenas com recursos próprios, passou a receber investimentos de familiares e amigos dos sócios até captar recursos de investidores institucionais no quarto e mais recente veículo do grupo.

Segundo o executivo, como os processos de repagamento têm levado um período de cinco a sete anos, esse histórico ajudou a companhia a montar uma base de cerca de 50 milhões de CPFs, ponto inicial para montar modelos de cobrança especializados, com abordagens específicas para cada tipo de público.

Com cerca de 10 milhões de operações de cobrança em curso, sendo dois terços disso de pessoas físicas, apenas 1,2 mil casos são objeto de processos judiciais, diz a gestora, o que considera bastante satisfatório dada a relação normalmente complicada nos processos de cobrança.

“A gente tenta um processo mais educativo, de mostrar os benefícios de um renegociação, o que tem dado resultado”, disse Barros, para quem o histórico de renegociações pode servir como uma espécie de cadastro positivo, sistema em que tomadores de crédito obtêm taxas menores devido ao bom histórico de adimplência.

De acordo com Barros, a Ipanema define como meta entregar ao investidor de seus fundos um retorno equivalente a 150 por cento do CDI, hoje algo em torno de 21 por cento anuais, e tem constantemente atingido ou superado esse patamar.

Dado o cenário prolongado de baixa atividade econômica do país, Barros avalia que as vendas de carteiras inadimplentes devem seguir forte. O mesmo não deve acontecer com a cobrança.

“Neste mercado, quando a economia vai mal é hora de comprar carteiras. Quando está tudo bem, é hora de cobrar”, disse.

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